This article first appeared in Politico Europe on December 29th, 2015
When President Erdoğan’s party won an unexpected and decisive victory
in Turkey’s November 1 election, many surprised observers concluded
that the Turkish people had voted for stability. A month later,
following the downing of a Russian jet and continued killing in the
country’s southeast, stability seems more elusive than ever. Yet as
Erdoğan leads Turkey into turbulent waters, polls suggest that his
popularity has only risen along with domestic and international
tensions.
People continuing to search for the secret of Erdogan’s popularity
might do well to consider the success of Turkey’s founder, Mustafa Kemal
Ataturk — particularly the powerful tradition of populist nationalism
and aggrieved egalitarianism that Erdoğan inherited from him.
Erdoğan and Ataturk are often seen as opposing
figures. For Ataturk’s supporters it is a contrast between the
modernizer and the reactionary, the pro-Western secularist and the
anti-Western Islamist.
Shortly before November’s elections, Erdoğan presented the contrast somewhat differently.
Welcoming guests to his new thousand-room presidential palace to
celebrate the founding of the Turkish Republic, Erdoğan reminded them
that the country’s founders had once celebrated the occasion in
Ataturk’s palace “with frocks, waltzes and champagne” while a
“half-starved nation, struggling to survive without shoes on their feet
or jackets on their backs, looked on from outside the gates in shock.”
Today, he went on, “after a long struggle we have eliminated this
division between the public and the Republic.”
Erdoğan told the assembled crowd that their presence inside his new
residence symbolized the fact that the building now belonged to the
people and to the nation.
In part, Turkey’s recent election hinged on whether the citizens
believed him. Did they think Erdogan’s palace truly belonged to them or
instead, as critics claimed, to an increasingly powerful and
out-of-touch autocrat? Most sided with Erdoğan, just as almost a century
earlier most had sided with Ataturk.
Ironically, Erdoğan’s attacks on Ataturk’s regime bear an uncanny
resemblance to Ataturk’s own attacks on the Ottoman sultans he overthrew
in creating modern Turkey. Erdoğan’s comments sought to depict his
predecessors as an alien elite whose European affectations marked them
as indifferent to the needs and culture of the masses. Ataturk worked to
paint the late Ottoman dynasty in the same light, saying the Sultans
who presided over the Empire’s dissolution were “foreign usurpers,”
“madmen and spendthrifts,” whose depravity endangered the Turkish
nation.
In place of waltzes and champagne, popular history from Ataturk’s era
offered the Mad Sultan Ibrahim, “taking amber as an aphrodisiac” to
“better busy himself with women” while Turkish soldiers fought and died.
To muster popular support for abolishing first the Ottoman Empire and
then the Caliphate, Ataturk accused the Ottoman Sultans of further
betraying the nation by seeking British support to sustain their corrupt
rule. With undoubted delight, Ataturk noted that the last Ottoman
Sultan, “in his capacity as Caliph of all the Mohamedans,” had “appealed
for English protection” and was conducted out of Istanbul on an English
man-of-war.

Building on this critique, Ataturk’s rhetoric centered on his
regime’s commitment to the values and well being of the Turkish people.
Slogans like “Turkey belongs to the Turks,” or “the villagers are the
masters of the nation” sought to give ordinary citizens a sense of
ownership over their new nation-state. Ataturk’s government claimed to
celebrate the people and their culture, speaking the plain Turkish of
Anatolian villagers, not the incomprehensible mix of Arabic and Persian
used by the Ottoman court. In place of royal palaces it promised museums
to display the villagers’ costumes and carpets with pride, and schools
to prepare them to take their place among the country’s governing elite.
In time, of course, Ataturk’s regime did create its
own elite, but most villagers remained conscious of their place outside
it. The regime’s authoritarian approach failed to live up to its
promises, bringing rural Turkish voters economic stagnation and
one-party rule instead of empowerment.

Erdoğan’s regime may well do the same, and in time be remembered in a
similar fashion. But its initial promise and methods are not that
different from Ataturk’s. After November’s election a pro-government
columnist wrote that the people who voted for Erdoğan demanded their
rightful place in “the media, the academy, the arts and the
neighborhoods of the elite.” Now, she declared, with the advent of
democracy, “all these bastions of the great nation will be conquered.”
In short, the villagers were still waiting to become masters of their
country, and they expected Erdoğan to deliver where Ataturk had failed.